Whats the latest September 2009

Asian Market Update: Japanese Yen rally sinks Nikkei225, forces rethink on "laissez-faire" FX policy of new administration; RBA's Stevens reaffirms tightening bias on open-ended timing

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (UK) UK Sept Hometrack Housing Survey M/M: 0.2 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -5.6% v -6.7% prior (Highest M/M increase since Jun 2007; Smallest Y/Y decrease since Sept 2008)
- (CH) China Aug Industrial Profits YTD Y/Y: -10.6% v -22.9% in May; Sales Income: 1.6% v -0.8% prior
- (CH) China Aug Consumer Confidence: 88.0 v 87.5 prior

*** SPEAKERS / FIXED INCOME / FX ***
- Asian equity markets have opened the week on a down note as optimism over the end of global recession continues to wane, giving way to concern over the nature and pace of recovery. With about two hours to go in Tokyo, Nikkei225 is at two-month lows, leading the regional decline to trade below 10,000. Administration's recent stance of non-interventionist FX policy is being put to the test, as continued Yen rally is being felt most acutely in export related sectors. Technology and consumer goods names are leading the slide in Tokyo, while basic materials is also one of the weakest sectors across the region. Recall last week, Japan's Finance Minister Fujii reiterated his opposition to FX intervention. In today's session, Fujii also noted the recent trend in USD/JPY is not abnormal, suggesting it would be a mistake to use FX policy to defend industry. However he also added that more stable currency moves are more desirable, with the sharp rise in the yen being watched "carefully". Additionally, Fujii said that his recent statements were not meant as suggestion the govt would leave

- Elsewhere in Asia, Hang Seng is off by more than 1.5% while Korea's Kospi, Taiwan's Taiex, and S&P/ASX are down about 1%. RBA Governor Stevens spoke extensively to the Senate Committee, maintaining a generally hawkish bias but ultimately disappointing AUD buyers by not providing a more clearly defined timeline of tightening. Stevens was particularly non-committal relative to other economic indicators, suggesting it remains to be seen if rates will need to rise before unemployment stops rising. Australian officials widely believe that unemployment rate will continue rising going forward. Additionally, Stevens noted that rates will not return to peak levels seen in 2008. In terms of economic forecasts, Stevens noted that both Australia and China will reach their 2009 GDP targets. However, he also saw domestic demand as not particularly strong, while consumption rate was seen falling back somewhat. Instead, Stevens said exports would become a larger part of economy, with structural demand for commodities expected to persist.

- Over in China, NDRC was also mixed on its assessment, noting the economy is still facing a "great fall" in export demand but that it will be able to overcome economic crisis. Additionally, NDRC said uncertainties do remain, but warned that policymakers should guard against all sorts of risks, including inflation. In the latest installment of the brewing US-China trade dispute, FT reported that China has initiated anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probes into imports of US poultry products - a retaliation against US lawmakers calling for safety inspections of Chinese facilities.

*** CURRENCIES ***
- In currencies, mixed comments from Finance Minister Fujii regarding the administration's comfort levels with JPY strength took the dollar and European crosses on a rollercoaster ride. USD/JPY fell below 88.40 before returning above 89.50, EUR/JPY tested the downside of 130.00 before bouncing above 130.50, and GBP/JPY fell 3 big figures below 140 before trading higher above 141.70. Greenback was unanimously higher against European majors amid risk aversion related flows into safehaven US assets. EUR/USD traded down 150 pips to 1.4570, GBP/USD extended its plunge by another 200 pips below 1.5780, and USD/CHF rallied above 1.03. In commodity FX, the greenback also saw some moderate gains. USD/CAD rose toward 1.10, AUD/USD briefly traded below 0.86, and NZD/USD fell 100 pips to 0.7120 from session peak to trough.

Recession proof umbella

It seems like the Brits finally pulled out their tools to save their nation, with housing data looking pleasant and the ftse stable at 5000 santa might have enough elfs to visit this christmas.

Where next

the crunch, yes that word that has been munching us and our pockets very crisply.... is it here to stay or will this ever come to an end.. recnt data aug 2009 suggests that the worlds trianle economy UK, US & Japan might be finally finding their feet but is this enough for us to say,,, yay! well the number of jobless is still a mess, inflation is at a hihg, curecneis have depreicated and looking at the basics like retial sales and housing data let us put our hands togeterh and say a few more pryaers... gold was predicted to reach 200 by the end of 2009 and oil doesnt know whos side its on, OPEC or the rest of us..!

well as it stands this crunch hasnt come without any surprises, if it ends now thats fien if not then thats fine... why! voltialyt in the global traidng arkets has been very very strong...

watch out for oil hitting 80+ ftse 5000+ dow jones 10,000+ gold ????